Thoughts from the Frontline

Highly acclaimed free weekly investment and economic newsletter

"If you're not reading John Mauldin, you should be."

&8212;G. Gilder

John Mauldin is a renowned financial expert, a New York Times best-selling author, and a pioneering online commentator. Each week, over 1 million readers turn to Mauldin for his penetrating view on Wall Street, global markets, and economic history.

Join our 1 million readers today!

Start My Free Subscription

Reader Comments

"You are the most thought provoking, balanced and direct analyst I know of. I'm sure glad I read you several years ago and started following you."

—J.F.

"You really do have a fine ability to explain technical matters in an understandable way a very rare gift indeed!"

—M.A.

"I enjoy your letters more than anything I receive from my other email. I just enjoy the intellectual, friendly banter."

—D.B.

"Everyone I've referred to your newsletter loves it. You should take this show on the road."

—R.S.

"Your weekly e-letters are the most important investment document I receive each week."

—T.M.

"My wife and I have been reading your report since 2000. We have enjoyed reading every report. Thank you for being so honest, candid, and open with your readers."

—G.H.

"I just wanted to let you know how much I appreciate your letter. I look forward to it every week. There are not many blogs or investment letters I trust but yours is one. I also like the fact that you are regular guy, a bright one, yes, but one I can identify with."

—M.B.

"During this volatile and unpredictable stock market, John provides some brilliant insights about what is really going on in the economy, both nationally—and globally. Every investor should receive this FREE weekly E-Letter."

—B.K.

The readers comments are specifically in reference to Thoughts From the Frontline e-letter published by InvestorsInsight Publishing, Inc. These comments in no way are testimonials or comments on the investment advisory firm Millennium Wave Advisors, LLC. For privacy policy reasons initials have been used for each reader's comment.

Latest Issue

Federal Reserve Folly

July 23, 2021

Great news: The US economy is officially out of recession. We know this because the National Bureau of Economic Research’s official recession-calling committee said so this week. The economy has been in an expansion phase since last April, making this the shortest recession on record at only two months.

The NBER committee always makes these calls in hindsight—both the beginning and end of recessions. Literally everyone could see the economy coming to a halt in March and April. The signs weren’t subtle. Yet it wasn’t until June 8, 2020, that they said the economy had peaked in February, marking the recession’s onset. I don’t blame them for waiting to see the data, though. Caution is appropriate on these things.

But really, 15 months to affirm the economy has been expanding? Their statement was quite specific. They call April 2020 the bottom because that month showed clear troughs in unemployment, GDP, PCE, and personal income ex-transfers. All this was known long ago.

Unlike NBER, a private group with no formal power, the Federal Reserve can actually do something with this kind of information. Nor does the Federal Open Market Committee have to wait for confirmation. It can act whenever it sees a need, which it certainly did when the pandemic struck.

Here’s a handy timeline summarizing the Fed’s near-daily actions in March and April 2020. They did far more than just open the Quantitative Easing spigots ($120 billion a month and counting) and lower the Fed Funds rates to...

Read Full Newsletter

Connect With Mauldin