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The Economy Is a-Changin’
December 2, 2022
Then you better start swimmin'
Or you'll sink like a stone
For the times they are a-changin'
—Bob Dylan, "The Times They Are A-Changin'"
Change is constant, in the economy and everything else. We talk about it often. Yet when we talk about the economy changing, we usually mean the economy’s condition is changing—from expansion to recession, deflationary to inflationary, emerging to developing, etc. That’s different from changes in the economy’s actual structure.
Yet I think that’s where we are. The “new economy” we’ll face as the 2020s unfold won’t just be a more intense version of the old one. It will be fundamentally different—profound, irreversible, and rapid evolution beyond anyone’s ability to resist.
We criticize Federal Reserve officials, and rightly so because they created many of our problems. Ditto for politicians. But as powerful as they are, central banks and governments still have limits. They can incentivize behavior, but they can’t always control it.
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Bob Dylan wrote “The Times They Are A-Changin’” in 1963, hoping it would become a protest song, the anthem of a social movement. Movement toward what? Not the Vietnam War, which was still brewing at that point. He later said he was thinking more of the civil rights movement. But then the Kennedy assassination happened, LBJ expanded the war, anti-draft...
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