Thoughts from the Frontline

Highly acclaimed free weekly investment and economic newsletter

"If you're not reading John Mauldin, you should be."

&8212;G. Gilder

John Mauldin is a renowned financial expert, a New York Times best-selling author, and a pioneering online commentator. Each week, over 1 million readers turn to Mauldin for his penetrating view on Wall Street, global markets, and economic history.

Join our 1 million readers today!

Start My Free Subscription

Reader Comments

"You are the most thought provoking, balanced and direct analyst I know of. I'm sure glad I read you several years ago and started following you."

—J.F.

"You really do have a fine ability to explain technical matters in an understandable way a very rare gift indeed!"

—M.A.

"I enjoy your letters more than anything I receive from my other email. I just enjoy the intellectual, friendly banter."

—D.B.

"Everyone I've referred to your newsletter loves it. You should take this show on the road."

—R.S.

"Your weekly e-letters are the most important investment document I receive each week."

—T.M.

"My wife and I have been reading your report since 2000. We have enjoyed reading every report. Thank you for being so honest, candid, and open with your readers."

—G.H.

"I just wanted to let you know how much I appreciate your letter. I look forward to it every week. There are not many blogs or investment letters I trust but yours is one. I also like the fact that you are regular guy, a bright one, yes, but one I can identify with."

—M.B.

"During this volatile and unpredictable stock market, John provides some brilliant insights about what is really going on in the economy, both nationally—and globally. Every investor should receive this FREE weekly E-Letter."

—B.K.

The readers comments are specifically in reference to Thoughts From the Frontline e-letter published by InvestorsInsight Publishing, Inc. These comments in no way are testimonials or comments on the investment advisory firm Millennium Wave Advisors, LLC. For privacy policy reasons initials have been used for each reader's comment.

Latest Issue

China for the Trade Win?

By John Mauldin

September 21, 2018

Empire of Debt
Debt in Pictures
Wargaming the Trade War
Some Thoughts on Getting Through the Great Debt Reset
San Francisco, Frankfurt, and Puerto Rico?

With all the trade war talk, we all ask the obvious question: Who will win? President Trump says the US will win. Chinese business leaders say no, we will win. Free-traders on both sides say no one will win. Few stop to ask, “What does a ‘win’ look like?”

This makes discussion difficult. People are chasing after a condition they can’t even define. Victory will remain elusive until they know what they want. Regardless, you can score me on the “no one wins” side. I believe, and I think a lot of evidence proves, that free trade between nations is the best way to maximize long-run prosperity for everyone.

However…

As Keynes famously said, we’re all dead in the long run. Trade war may end with no winners, but the parties will be better and worse off at various times as it progresses. So we have to distinguish between “winning” and “holding a temporary lead.”

On that basis, I think the US will have the upper hand initially, and could hold it for a year or two. This is because, for now, our economy is relatively strong and we can better withstand any Chinese retaliation. Beyond that point I think our current policies will begin to backfire, maybe spectacularly.

Remember, too, China has growing trade surpluses with much of the world. One Chinese insider told me that within four years China can replace lost US exports via increased trading with the rest of the world. I can’t verify that but looking at general statistics it certainly seems plausible. That doesn’t mean lost US...

Read Full Newsletter

Connect With Mauldin