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Latest Issue

Forecast 2021: The Stock Market

January 22, 2021

This will be the third part of my 2021 Forecast Series. You can read the first two parts here and here. The general theme has been “On the Gripping Hand.” Science fiction writers imagined a three-handed alien race with a left hand, right hand, and a very strong Gripping Hand. 2021 is the year of the Gripping Hand, and COVID-19 is what’s gripping us. Making a forecast without the virus at its center is pointless.

All that being said, today we are going to focus on my stock market expectations. As I promised last week, this is a “Generational Call.” For reasons we will go into below, I think we are at a pivot point for stocks, with some clear exceptions I will outline. So maybe like generational call* with an asterisk.

On the Gripping Hand, Part 3

Let’s first do a very quick virus update. By the time you read this, the US will likely have administered 20 million vaccinations. Add those who were previously infected, and maybe 40 million people should have some degree of immunity.

The number of new cases is dropping, as you can see in these charts from Justin Stebbing, a professor at Imperial College who sends a detailed daily COVID research summary.


Source: Justin Stebbing

New deaths are thankfully also turning.


Source: Justin Stebbing

That’s the good part, but there’s more that is less comforting. The CDC unfortunately confirmed my alarm (described last week) about the UK (B117) variant strain. They expect it will account for 50% of US cases by March.

This does not...

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